When last I visited the 30 Years, I had covered the shorts I had initiated on a 13-week (quarterly trend) Upthrust Sell Signal (See Nature of Trends). The reason I covered was the strong rally seen in the daily chart from the midpoint of the Sideways Structure marked ABC in Figure 1.
FIGURE 1 12-Month 30-Year Bonds
Figure 1 also shows that on the change in trend failure, the market rose parabolically.
FIGURE 2 13-week swing 30 Year Bonds
Figure 2 shows that the 13-week has the targets for the up move. The green lines represent the 12-Month swing; the black lines the 13-week swing. The strong reaction down off the 13-week targets suggest a top is now in place; but I’d wait for a Lagging Change In Trend in the 18-day (monthly trend) or Forecasting Pattern in the 5-day (weekly trend) before looking to initiate shorts. These patterns have yet to appear.
Once the requisite Change in Trend Pattern appears, I’ll be looking for a zone and setup to go short.
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