BarroMetrics Views: A Double Dip for the US?

In his latest blog (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/are-we-headed-recessdepress-ion-answer-9-simple-charts), Tyler Durden  has come up with some traditional charts that suggest the US is headed for a double dip.

If you want to see some leading indicators with a great track record, you only have to go to ECRI’s public page: http://www.businesscycle.com/reports_indexes/allindexes (press ‘+’ to see the charts).

My only regret is ECRI has slowly been reducing its assistance to the non-institutional trader.  This is just an observation - there is no reason why it should.

I say ‘reducing’ because:

• It used to run a ‘light’ version on a subscription basis that was at least within the budget of most retail traders.
• It then made that a free public version; and.
• It then cut down the public version to its current format.

A pity, because the present FIG is not a patch on the old one: we now have only a 3-month context. This is a small window to assess the context. In the old format, we had a visual gauge of the whole gamut of inflation that made it easy to assess the status of the current picture.
I like the ECRI indicators because they lead and are robust.  Unfortunately, the service even for the lowest category of subscription, is prohibitive for the retail trader.  That said, at least ECRI is still providing some free info - better than nothing, and for that, I am grateful.

Figure 1 shows the leading indicators for growth (down)  and inflation (up). Not a great combination. It does seem that US economy is heading for troubled waters.

FIGURE 1 ECRI Leading Indicators

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