BarroMetrics Views: An Interesting Time AUD/USD
The instruments I follow are poised on inflection points. One way or another we should see resolution no later than Friday Sept 18. Let’s consider a number of them from the perspective of the material in the Nature of Trends.
Let’s start with AUDUSD. In Figure 1, we see the AUDUSD with 30-month swings (2.5 year trend). The price action off the April 2001 lows shows an almost classic V0-bottom; it’s an ‘almost’ because we did not see a Whole Point Count (in this case 15 consecutive months where the monthly low was at or above .8920 (the original B; we saw only 11 months. See Figure 2).
Nevertheless, I take the view that the 30-month trend has changed from down to up. This change in trend will be confirmed once we accept above .9800 (A?).
The 12-month trend (yearly trend) is unclear. My best guess is we have a sideways market bounded by .9850 and .6011. The 13-week trend (quarterly trend) is also unknown - for the moment I am assuming the .9850 to .6011 sideways boundaries.
What is clear from Figure 2 is the 13-w is statistically overbought. Even if the current swing were treated as an impulse move, the current swing is larger than any previous swing. This does not mean the line must turn, but it does mean I need to exercise care in my 18-day timeframe (monthly trend). A correction in the 13-week usually means an 18-day change in trend.
Figure 3 is the 5-day swing. We have a possible Horizontal Terminal.While the AUDUSD has moved above the Maximum Extension at .8572, we need to see a bullish conviction close. Moreover, we need to see rejection today or I shall assume that we have had a WPC and once that occurs, we no longer have a possible Horizontal Terminal.
For the Horizontal Terminal to be triggered we need to see a bearish conviction close below the lower boundary of the HT’s Primary Sell Zone coming in at .8437.
That’s the AUDUSD, over the next few days we’ll look at Crude, Gold and the S&P
Figure 1 30-Month Swing
Figure 2 30-Month Swing
Figure 3 13-Week Swing
Figure 4 5-Day Swing
Refer this blog post to a friend or colleague…
