hi ray,

about the intuition later.

i was buying back the stocks i sold few weeks ago (i always do it), and my intention is to cover half of it before market close.

15 minutes before the close i happen to read your post and prompted me to cover all at once.

i have the same feeling that the correction is over for now.

i could not have done it due to my fear.

i had also covered my S&P futures just about the time the US Q GDP was out, +5.7%!

your post have been just perfect timing for me.

i’m greatly appreciated.

Hi

Re Your Trades:

I am very happy I was able to help in some small way. As always, however, all credit goes to the trader.

RE Intuition:

Yours is one approach and it works well with your personality.

Hi Ana

Thanks for the comment.

I hear you - you have spoken like a true ‘deliberative decision-maker’. And for us (I fall into the same category), reasoning after the fact IS a gamble.

But for those with an ‘intutive model’ of decision-making, identifying the risk-parameters after a trade is perfectly natural and reasonable.

It’s not that initutive decision-makers don’t work out their risk paraemeters, they just do it at a different stage of the trade.

I feel that the key element for traders is for us:

1) to define our risk and exit conditions - whether we do that before or after entry is a function of personality and
2) to act when those conditions arise.

What is a gamble is when we either:

a) don’t assess the risk parameters and exit conditions. Or
b) define them but fail to act.

That truly is a recipe for disaster.

I am getting a little more organized. Finally I am creating a playbook with strategies. This has helped me overcome my overtrading habit.

In my strategies, I do allow for intuitive entries. Some analysis is done before the fact. Some analysis is done after the fact.

I am convinced I know in my heart when there is a high probability setup. If I wait and articulate all the reasons for entry, I will most likely miss the move. Hello to coconut and Mr. Barros.

hi all

intuition and guts are the most important element in good trading.

follow one intuition is to eliminate ones confusion which is destructive in trading.

ray is correct, no one can truly be able to stay in this business if one does not respect the risk, whether you are a “good trader” or not.

in my opinion, one should determine his risk but not assessing his rewards.

or, cut your losses as short as you can and ride your winners as long as you can. that can only be achieve through experience.

oh gambling,

all traders, speculators, or any market participants including long terms investors are gamblers.

perhaps one might not want to admit it.

ray, a personal favour to ask.

i’m not a good stocks trader, but i have exposure in the stock market.

this is the 3rd time i’ve traded stocks and i have difficulties in hedging it.

i’d try options, stocks index futures and even currencies to do it but results was not satisfied. (may be the whole market are so co-related due to the crises)

any suggestions? (beside selling my stocks outright)

thanks in advance.

Hi

I have little experience with hedging stocks. I guess that it is little different from hedging currency exposure.

If that is true, then hedging will never be a 100% protection.

“Taking action first and intuition or reasoning after the fact is to me a gamble!”

no ana,

you are not wrong if you are a “trend follower”.

however market does not go in a straight line, and the contrarian trader will anticipate the “bounce” to get into the market.

usually, not always that you will be in the money temporarily and have enough time for the trader to decide whether he is on the right track or not.

of course, some time he will get crash if the market does go one sided.

but i can assure you that’s trader who do it are not necessary gambling their money away.