Wed 7 May 2008
Answers to Questions II
Posted by ray under Miscellaneous
Tonight I’ll complete my answers to the questions I received. But before I do that, I want to draw your attention to the ’search’ functionality available to all readers. Figure 1 shows its location - just type key words and you’ll have all the entries containing the key words .
Now, let’s turn to the questions.
The first set asks: why I continue researching since my approach to the market makes money? The assumption here seems to be either: you can’t be making money or you wouldn’t continue researching or since the method works, why bother?
The first answer would be to challenge the assumptions. The fact that my methods work under present conditions, does not mean that they will continue to work if market conditions change. By seeing markets from different perspectives, I have a chance of acquiring fresh insights. Some insights, though valid, I may not be able to adopt because they don’t suit my personality; others may contribute to my store of knowledge. The point is markets are not static and our knowledge and skills need to keep pace with them.
That answer can be described as my utilitarian response. A more important aspect is this: my nature is one that seeks CANI (Tony Robbins’ Constant and Never-Ending Improvement). I am constantly seeking to improve my skills (reading, writing. teaching, trading etc) and self-awareness. I budget 10% of annual income to ‘research and development’. CANI is part of who I am.
The second set of questions asks: what is the basis by which I recommend sites and courses? One question included a statement that the reader believed I received a commission.
I thought I dealt with this in the blog but for the record: I see nothing ethically wrong about being an affiliate vendor. If I did receive a commission, I would state it up front. The thing is, it’s not that easy to be an affiliate. The vendor and I would have to share the same idea about the product’s value and cost; I’d associate myself only with those products that offer value for value. This would be the sole criterion.
So let me again state: in respect of the commercial sites mentioned in ‘The Meaning of Money’ (http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/meaning-of-money-325.html) , I have not been offered, nor have I accepted any commission for the recommendation. OK?
As to the basis for selection: I select sites and products that I believe have something genuine to offer the trading community. They can be free or charge a fee - the cost is only relevant when I ask myself: do I believe the product is offering value?
The final set of questions: why won’t I run a seminar in the US? The simple answer to this one is this.
I dislike organising seminars - they take too much time and effort. If anyone want to organise one, I’ll be happy to consider the venture. I run seminars because:
- I am a good teacher,
- I love to do it and
- It helps my branding. When I approach an institution or high-net worth individual to participate in a fund, it helps if my ‘name’ is a familiar one.
I hope I have answered all questions. It’d be better if you send them to the blog; if you do that. I’ll address them specifically.
Figure 1 Search
May 7th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Hi Ray,Relating to the questions.The reason that this is one of my favourite sites is because of your research and ethics.I dont trade the same markets as you or the same system but i do enjoy having my brain stimulated into another line of thought or enquiry brought about by your observations,commentary and quality analysis.Its like the proverbial finger pointing to the heavens… cheers Baz
May 7th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Hi Baz
You are alway very kind. Thank you.
May 8th, 2008 at 7:17 am
BREAKING NEWS:Cross ref from IDkit today:
Ray on Nifty at CNBC Mumbai in April 08
I came across this video while searching for something else on mentor Ray.
I was under the impression the interview at Mumbai CNBC was not recorded, but it is and you may go to this link:
Please copy and paste to access:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/video/stockmarket/12/32/newsvideo/334014
May 8th, 2008 at 7:58 am
ALTERNATIVE TO VIDEO IS ARTICLE ON CNBC INTERVIEW IN MUMBAI:
If Nifty breaks 4,668, mkts may test Jan Lows: Ray Barros
2008-04-11 17:15:03 Source : CNBC-TV18
Email Print Version [Watch Video] Watch Video
Ray Barros, Fund Manager, Author & Educator has aview that Indian markets are holding up better than the Chinese markets. He also adds that if Nifty breaks 4,668, markets may test Jan lows
Excerpts from the exclusive interview with Ray Barros:
Q: How have you read the risk aversion towards emerging markets and how would you plot out the rest of the year in terms of a performance for them?
A: I will answer the second question first; to me the world markets are getting set for bear market. I am looking for critical levels at the moment on the Nifty at about 5,545 if we can get above that then I think we will be okay. If we break below the 4,468-4,448 area, then I think you are going to be in a bear market will come to pass.
In terms of the Sensex, the critical level for me is the 14,677 and then 13,779, those are very critical levels on the downside. On the upside, we have got quite a way to go. It is about 16,452 if we can clear that then I think you have got a good run all the way to the 20,278 area. But I am not hopeful.
Q: Some technical analysts have made the point that the odd seem higher that our market will actually go back to test the January lows and maybe trade below that, how high would you rate those chances?
A: I think we need to break below 14,067 area base for the Sensex and 4,468 base the Nifty. If we take those levels out then of course I think the chances are very good until we do I think it is a 50:50 bet.
Q: How are you reading developments or trends across other global markets right now and do you think this trend of India and China continuously underperforming is going to continue for a while?
A: Let us take China first, I think globally the US, London, Footsie, the DAX and the Australian SPX are very similar to the Indian markets and are trading on some very critical levels. In the S&P for example, we are looking at 1,70-1,258 on the downside, 1,400 on the upside basis cash. If you can take 1,400 out on the upside, then we are going to have another run at the highs.
On the other hand if we get down to the 1,270 levels I think we are going to take that out and I think we will be in for a bear market that as far as the western nations are concerned. I think China is already in a bear market, we are getting some bear market rallies in the Shanghai index but overall I think that is already in a bear market.
I think the Indian market is holding up better than the Chinese markets. So right now the Indian market is probably in the best in the category and unless we take out this 14,677 level base for the Sensex and 4,468 base for the Nifty, I am not prepared to say we are going to have the bear market but if we take those levels out then I think the bear market is started.
Q: What about what is happening with the US market, they have been relatively resilient these past few days? What kind of trends do you see on something like the S&P now?
A: Well I think one thing you?ve got to give the Fed credit for is they have done a massive rescue. We would?ve actually seen 1270 well and truly breached but for their actions. However, that is coming at a price. Bernanke started easing the US money supply back in August of last year. Now generally speaking, what happens is there is about a 9-month lag between the time that you pump money into the economy to the time that the CPI figures start to show up. Now that was about eight months ago. The first CPI that is going to be important is the one coming up next week.
If we start to see inflation rising in the US, then I wouldn?t want to be in Bernanke?s shoes, simply because of the fact that he has eased as much as he can and now the inflation numbers are starting to come through. Now one very interesting point that was made in Singapore recently was a point made by one of the guests, he said that Richard Montgomery, which is number two on the board of the Fed has been making speeches, which ultimately become policy and his most recent speech was actually on inflation. So, I am actually looking for an inflationary figure above expectations coming up next week. If that happens, I think the US market will start its downward decline. If it does do that, I think we are in for at least a two-year bear market.
Q: If that is the case, how do you expect money interest to flow into a market like India? Will it become the better market to track or an avoid?
A: I don?t know the answer to that question because one of the things that I have noticed about bear markets and particularly bear markets around the world is that it is not a question of flowing. People just stop investing, people just take the money and store it away. It is not a question of saying, I am not investing in the US, let?s try India or let?s try China. They just don?t invest. So, I would need to see what would happen, when the bear markets begin to see whether or not the money flow that is going to exit the US for example, will flow into countries like India. I don?t know the answer to that one to be perfectly honest.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Hi Ana
Thanks for finding and posting the Mumbai video. I didn’t get a chance to review the show so I have something to do tonight.
May 8th, 2008 at 9:26 am
More from Mumbai CNBC:
Who owns the SENSEX?
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/video/stockmarket/14/20/newsvideo/337190
May 8th, 2008 at 9:27 am
thanks to Ana for showing this interview.This is really interesting commentary.Would love to hear more of your thoughts on the Aussie SPI at some point.Cheers Baz
May 8th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
My pleasure, Baz, to share.