Generic Success


WHY do we as traders need to keep a journal?

With a balance of self-discipline and cognitive flexibility, rules can be applied to enhance trading performance.

This self-discipline includes:

1. Start every day fresh. Think of a mantra : “There’s a bullet coming toward my head today, and I’ve got to figure out where it’s coming from and how to stop it.” This mantra can bring down overconfidence, instill humility and encourage preparedness.

2. Invest an amount of money that is comfortable. If we invest on money that is on the line, or what we stand to gain, then judgment will be impaired. When emotions become overwhelming, ‘throw a maiden in the volcano.

3. Plan and Invest :Linda Bradford Raschke counsels, “Know what you are going to do BEFORE the market opens.” Mark Cook remarks: “Planning is the objective part of trading. Start with the worst case scenario and work from there.”

4. Learn from past mistakes. Keep a psychological journal. Journaling is the most commonly prescribed method as trading psychologist Dr Brett Steenbarger points out. Keeping a decision journal is an important part of a trader’s daily training and practice. While athletes exercise their bodies and hone their physical techniques, investors need to be aware of defects and advantages in their mental game. If athletes must spend hundreds of hours in practice and training for each hour of actual competition, journaling process may seem excessive and time consuming, but this is the price traders have to pay.

Some Questions for template of Psychological Decision Journal:

1. Pre-decision : What are my qualitative reasons for investing in this security? What is my level of confidence in this decision? What is my advantage? What objective changes in conditions will change my decision? What are my specific criteria for a buy/sell?

2. Post-decision : How am I feeling about the pre-outcome?

3. Post-outcome : Was it accurate ? Any flaws in the decision process? Can I find patterns to compare with my previous decisions? Did I deviate from my investment philosophy? What were the most successful aspects of this decision.

CONCLUSION

This psychological decision journal template should be used in conjunction with a spreadsheet journal with quantifiable statistics. They include style of trading, eg swing trade, intraday trade, long-term position etc. Also stop boundaries for both time and price and objectives including expected risk/reward probabilities, number of losing and winning trades, to find evidence of loss aversion.Biases towards periods of favorable sentiment can be detected on both templates BUT by dragging this out into the light of day, one can then try to solve the problem/s to become a better trader.

ANA aka IDKIT

Ag Moderator

An insight into a former pit trader

from-the-pit.jpg

As trading has gradually moved from the floor of the exchange to the electronic screen, I am lucky to have persuaded a very shy former pit trader to share his views as to why he moved to the electronic screen. He is undoubtedly one of the best pit traders in Singapore. However, to give in to his request to remain anonymous, I shall call him Pitt.

Pitt unlike many of his former colleagues was the first to recognize the importance of moving forward with technology. I managed to get a few questions put to him which he has graciously consented to reply. He is a man of few words but his brain is ticking all the time, make no mistake about this.

Without further ado, let me pose the following questions with his laconic replies:

  • How did you start to be a student of Ray?

Pitt: In the year 2004 , when I realised that the pit was going to close soon , I told myself that what I used to do in the pit would not be the same as trading electronically. When the first seminar came along in Singapore conducted by Ray Barros on the nature of trends, I enrolled and became one of his earliest students.

  • What prompted you to get off the pit to learn electronic trading?

Pitt: I was convinced I had to acquire a new set of skills and a totally different mindset to prepare for electronic trading which was slowly taking over the pits all over the world. Either I acquire new skills or I perish in the pit!

  • Having commenced a course, what made you to continue with new seminars or courses run by Ray?

Pitt: After going through Ray’s seminar and getting to know him more, I realized that his seminars have helped me in my trading, especially the aspect on psychology. His concept and approach of the market suited my trading style. Whenever new and advance courses were held by Ray, I would be there as I believe in continuous education.

  • What did you find so different , trading in the pit, as opposed to trading electronically?

Pitt: Well, as a pit trader you had an edge over other players because you were right there where all the actions were. You would be the first to react when there was any breaking news. You could also lean on the tight spread of the bid and offer prices. In electronic trading , you are” blind” as you don’t hear the sound and see the sight of the floor. So most of the time you are lost, and the only way to be in the game is to have a set of skills and correct mindset.

  • What are your observations of other pit traders who would not learn new methods?

Pitt: Sorry, no comment; I only see they are still trading.

  • What is the single most important lesson that you take away from Ray?

Pitt: The most important lesson I learn from Ray is: trading is simple but not easy . To be successful we must always keep learning new things, and know when to change when market changes .

  • Have you any advice for newbies?

Pitt: Yes . One other thing I take away from Ray is “ capital preservation “ . We need capital to stay in the game - ” no money, no talk” . If you lose all your capital , you will not have a chance to make back your money. So always remember the saying : “ cut your losses short and let your profits ride.”

ANA aka IDKIT

Ag Moderator

This is the second testimonial from one of Ray’s STC mentor students . Such contributions will go a long way to enlighten those who may have bought NOT and find it hard to follow. Training and education go hand in hand as evident from Tom and Anthony.-ANA

PLEASE READ ON:

 

Like Tom, I am a STC graduate (July 07) and I read his contribution with interest as I know Tom and a bit about his journey. My trader education has been very different to Tom’s. As I reflect on my journey, I thought I would talk about my experiences with Ray and what I believe to be truly mind blowing - trading psychology.

First off, let me quickly talk about the title of this piece. I feel daring using the words ‘trading success’ in the presence of Ray Barros who is extremely successful. If I think about just how much progress I have made since STC, then I can consider using the above words with pride.

Secondly, with Ray’s hip dilemma he has asked some of his friends to write in his blog whilst he is laid up. I am not too sure which is the real reason. Is it to keep his readers occupied whilst he convalesces or was it to give him the encouragement to get up and continue his blog before we lower his incredible standard too far?

I wish Ray a speedy recovery, not to mention desperately waiting for him to recommence his blog.

What was it about Ray and STC?

The reason I came to Ray was because I had tried to learn by reading numerous trading books, attending small cheaper courses and joining the local Technical Analyst Association. The philosophy at the time was that new traders lose money for about 2 years and then realise that education is essential and this leads to another couple of years of not losing but also not making money, and then you achieve a level of learning and experience where you start to make money from your trading. Well I was making some money but certainly not enough. In fact, I could have done better by leaving it in the bank!

I had become an Indicator Junkie and was mixing up bits and pieces of methods and losing myself in different timeframes.

The STC method

The STC method is a very robust one where I use a discretionary approach.

‘The Nature of Trends’ pretty much covers the Barros Swing approach to defining the trend, will it continue or change, and where are we in that trend. This gives me the strategy, and then I look for Low Risk Entries. This involves a setup (chart pattern), at a zone with an entry trigger and an initial stop (both price and time).

A risk assessment is done on every trade and must exceed 2:1 before considering taking the trade.

One of the keys to success for me is creating scenarios of what the market may do and setting my benchmarks for those scenarios. I tended to take a very myopic view (Ray’s observation) regarding my analysis and positions.

Once in the trade I manage the position with the Rule of Three.

I also use the Ray Wave as a risk management tool.

Did I forget to mention that I didn’t have a trade plan? Ray insists not only on a trade plan, but a vision and a business plan as well! I am still working on those.

More importantly, I think even Ray would agree with me that it is not the method that will guarantee success; it is all the other things.

Dare I repeat the words trading psychology?

Ray insists on using a psyche journal to record your trades and your feelings about the market, your entry, your exit. It is because your feelings or emotions are like built up internal energy which will come out eventually, and sometimes the emotional energy when unaddressed, will cause you to take unplanned trades. That is either entries or exits that deviate from your plan. Before striking that Buy/Sell button ,you should ask yourself, is this part of my plan or are my emotions controlling the finger pushing the mouse button.

Ray emphasizes keeping your Psyche and equity journals up to date. Then regularly analyse and review both journals for evidence of unsuccessful and successful trading habits.

It was this psyche stuff that made the biggest difference to my trading. Not the method, not the money management, but the psychology. Alexander Elder likens it to a three- legged stool – method, money management and psychology. Take away any one leg and you will fall over.

Ray introduced me to Denise Shull at “Trader Psyches”. Denise says ‘emotions trump intellect’. We can’t control the emotions; we can control our actions. Denise helps you identify your repetition compulsions (Freud) or what Denise calls ‘Echoes of Perception’. An untruth you pick up as a child and carry through into adult life. That echo will affect the things that you try to achieve. These are usually along the lines of ‘not feeling good enough’. My echo was that I feel like ‘I don’t know’. Now that may seem silly, as I have 2 university degrees and have been reasonably successful in my profession.

Given that the markets are an environment of uncertainty and low predictability, my ‘I don’t know’ echo was really in its element. The funny thing is that I spent a lot of years searching for the perfect method when it was my ‘echo of perception’ that was interfering with my success.

Thanks to Denise and Ray, I can sit confidently on the three -legged stool. I now have tactics to deal with my echo and I am proud to announce that my trading is improving.

I guess my message here is don’t write off trading psychology - often it is not the method that lets traders down, it may be a lot closer home.

AnthonyB,

Australia

ANA aka IDKIT

Ag Moderator

What better testimony than from a former student!

TomC is one mentor student of Ray, and he has submitted his contribution to this blog in response to my appeal for contributions, especially from Ray’s students. Readers will then get to know what to expect from Ray as a teacher and mentor for he suffers no fool but will go out of his way to impart more to those who are willing to learn and work hard. Many have fallen by the wayside because it is not easy to step out of one’s comfort zone. However, if one perseveres to get over the first few hurdles, it becomes second nature to pursue a daily routine of good habits to become a good trader, be it a novice trader for starters.

Without further ado, please read what Tom has to share hereunder:

Notes on Trader Education by TomC:

tom - ad

Typical ad which misleads novices

It’s generally accepted that traders need some initial education and those who initially don’t think so usually seek education when the losses come around.

Given that most traders get into trading to make money, the question becomes - Is it possible to find a book, a course, a mentor, a tipping service that will just once and for all provide you with the secret to financial success in the market ?

What’s the difference between trading education and studying for a Computer Science degree (BSc) or is there any !? Are those educators with the more complex, mathematically, statistically based approaches the best ? Should one seek continuous education or is an initial course enough ?

Or forget about all this ‘bunk’ , it is possible just to do a weekend seminar and come away with a money making system from day one , i.e. just follow the steps to riches. Or better still, why don’t I just subscribe to a trade recommendation service and just relax at home while the profits pour in.

AD RE-LOCATED AT TOP

 

 

In relation to my own experience, my initial interest was sparked in investments by my accountant who told me of large, easy profits by buying progressively company stocks. I realise now I probably only heard about the winners. I subsequently bought a few stocks following this , and yes, over time made money on them - probably, because I only looked at them once every 6 months, and because it was a bull market.

As a previous avid reader of computer science , I then decided to apply the same approach to investing. I proceeded to the stock exchange bookshop and bought some basic investment books. In addition, I was told that the bible was Trading for a Living by Elder – obviously I had to have it.

I read it and went on to buy more stuff from his website. I also read up and attended some lectures by Chris Tate who I highly recommend even now.

I somehow discovered and contacted Ray who asked for my trading plan (what plan!?). I was screened with preliminary questions and answers as is his mode of selection, and accepted as his student. However I moved country and postponed my start of mentorship program till 2 years later. After l settled down, I stumbled across the release of Nature of Trends ( First Edition) and again contacted Ray and re- applied again. I was accepted again and really started the STC mentorship program.

In between moving countries , I had some time off and attended a day seminar with Larry Williams. As with Dr Elder, I was not broke from trading but I did not make any money either !

So the STC study began and the original book was not as ‘user friendly’ as the current one. The current transition to swing charts took some time. The STC covers Trend identification using Barros Swing charts, changes in trend patterns, low risk entry, money management and practical trading under Ray’s guidance and mentoring program. Generally, I would meet Ray weekly on the Net, do the homework and consume the Nature of Trends.

Ray will suss up our weaknesses first, identify any issues the trader may have and introduce topics to suit the individual. He may also offer extra courses such as the Ray Wave or Market Profile depending on the student’s progress and capability. He is direct, expects his students to work hard and fully committed to their success. Then he is easy to work with and ultimately becomes a good friend to his students.

Now all this work is fine and nice to learn , but one’s life must continue while this is happening. So I took a break while I built a new house. STC is the kind of program that is great and could be really appreciated if one did not have to work, did not have any family or sporting commitments and have lots of trading capital. But I ask : if one were financially free, with no worries , would they take the time and effort to learn to trade ?- probably, NOT.

Oh yes, and then I was distracted with another trading system called VSA . My thoughts were :this looks so easy I just make some money while I am doing STC, and in addition, it looks like I could integrate this into STC by using STC to identify a zone and execute using these tools. Well guess what? – it was a distraction, a waste of money and not helpful !.

So I reviewed, settled down , studied hard, went to the practical trading portion of STC and eventually graduated. There really is no easy way out of it. I think all traders will have to put in their work and learn how the market works from their perspectives. The other main output from learning to trade is to know myself , and in the context of trading, how I must address them. For example, one can get relaxed after a winning position as if it will continue forever - Solution: watch out for that and force myself to review the position daily .

What I have learned is how I learn, how I like to learn and how to make a proper assessment if a particular course or skill will enhance my performance. It is fine to be sceptical of education providers; it’s your money, you expect value.

NOW to end and to summarize my views on this topic and answer the questions raised:

1. Education is vital to the typical trader’s success in the market (with exceptions).

2.It transforms one’s thought process from thinking like the man in the street to thinking in probabilities and to cope with losses or to see them as part of doing business.

3.There is no get rich quick weekend trading course, no piece of software that will turn 300 to 100k in one year, no tipping service that will send you the winning ticket symbols with entry, stop, break-even and limits.

4.Once you know how to trade basically, find the most appropriate next training course for analysing your journal, especially your mistakes ie to identify the issue and fix it.

5.Once armed with this first education, the best way to learn to trade, is to start to trade and keep notes, review records. Education and a continuous one at that will certainly help but will not guarantee success, only a high probability of success . Doing the best you can is success in itself, and we can all be proud of that.

6.I also believe we should choose an educational partner that we can go back to, one with integrity, one who is prepared to help in times of SOS. In other words, a Mentor or Group you trust and committed to your progress.

7.Finally, one you can look up to and admire. For me Ray Barros is all that and more, and I know he has helped many others as well.

TomC, STC Graduate

 

ANA aka IDKIT

Ag Moderator

On Saturday May 24 at 10:30 PM EST, I’ll be holding a webinar on the methods I derived from the Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. The webinar will go for about 90 minutes.

There is no cost but it would be best if you have read the Nature of Trends.

I have 4 seats on a first come first serve basis. Drop me a line at ramonbarros@tradingsuccess.com