In his chapter on luck, Bob Rice says: “The expression ‘the harder I work, the luckier I get,” is not just cute; it is mathematically correct.” In short, if we follow a plan, and execute it consistently, then we’ll place ourselves in a position to ‘get lucky’. While Bob is speaking about chess and business, […]
Thinking ‘Three Moves Ahead’ V
Thinking ‘Three Moves Ahead’ IV
We are talking about the impact of time on trading. In my last blog I spoke about using time to manage our trades. In this blog, I want to consider the impact time has on risk.
I use the 18-day swing as my trader’s timeframe i.e. the monthly trend defines my strategy: ‘long’, or ’short’, or […]
Thinking ‘Three Moves Ahead’ III
In Chapter Four of Three Moves Ahead, Bob Rice deals with the issue of time. He starts with the sentence: “Run out of time, and you lose. It’s the same in business and chess”. He could have added “and in trading”.
Pete Steidlmayer taught me that the greatest enemy to keeping losses small is […]
Thinking ‘Three Moves Ahead’ II
I have to give a presentation tonight so I am posting early.
Yesterday I suggested certain questions we ought to ask ourselves before we take a trade. Today I’d like to take the preparation, ‘the opening move’, one step further.
The questions help the analysis for the trading plan and for the risk management plan. They don’t […]
Thinking ‘Three Moves Ahead’
Before I start today’s blog, I’d like to turn to a question Manish Shah, <manish.shah@centrum.co.in>, asked. By the way, I’d be grateful if questions are posted to the blog - that way, all benefit. Here’s the question:
I want to ask you a small question. I am not an out an out mechanical trader. But I […]
Trading and New Experiences
I like to think that I love to try new experiences, especially if it comes to trading. Hence my willingness to try the course by Pride Educators (http://www.tradewithpride.com/) and my testing of Dynamic Trading Bars (http://www.trade2win.com/store/dynamic-trading-bars-p141.html). Sometimes I read a book/books for the sheer joy of viewing an event from a different perspective.
I have to […]
The Mental State for Scenario Planning
One of the critical mental states for Scenario Planning is the ability to hold competing ideas at the same time without having to resolve the discordance. Among my mentor students, this lesson is one of the hardest to learn. I believe this is because humans are wired with two traits:
Hindsight bias and
The need to resolve […]
The Paradigm of Success
Nowadays, there is a tendency among trading coaches to diminish areas outside the province of their expertise: those who specialize in psychology will claim this is the most important; those that deal with money management stress its critical role; others focus on the having of a written plan with an edge.
One reason I like Dr. […]
Why 95% of Traders Lose and What You Must Do
I have just finished Noble Derakoln’s “Winning the Trading Game, Why 95% of Traders LOSE etc”.
I like it in parts - the best was the section describing the path losing traders follow. I’ll start this series by setting the stage using Derakoln’s description (page 70).
Beginning with Happiness: For some reason, most newbie traders I have […]
Success Depends on Knowing Your Outcome
The Asian Traders Investment Convention (ATIC) held in Singapore over the weekend drove home to me how important it is to our success that we clearly identify the outcome we want and the reasons for the outcome.
In Singapore, I hold one seminar a year. The aim of the seminar was always to provide an educational […]

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