With no major news reports until Friday (Non-Farm), I thought it would be a time to revisit the ES.
Unless we can close at or below 1270 basis cash, the 12-month swing (yearly trend) has still to confirm the Upthrust sell signal. The 13-week (quarterly) swing in the meantime has to complete its Whole Point Count; […]

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So far we have completed the way I assess position sizing. The next step is to manage the trade.
The first step is to identify the entry, initial stop and core profit exit- this is function of your plan.
The next step is to assess the trade’s risk-reward. Because I use the Rule of Three, I assess […]

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In the last blog, we completed the formula for a normal position size and now we come to “Ebb and Flow”.
I discussed the idea briefly in the Art of Position Sizing. As Pete Steidlmayer said: “Risk is managed by knowledge - knowledge of self and of the markets”. ‘Ebb and Flow’ depends on having […]

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In this blog, I’ll be looking at the way I would calculate my position size using a dollar criteria.
The inputs are:

The average dollar win per trade.
The average dollar win on a one-contract basis.
The maximum dollar loss
The volatility of the market as measured by the stop location. My stops are based on swing extremes. For this […]

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An important announcement: In an ealrier blog, I made the statement that clients of FX brokers were protected in Australia against broker malfeasance. I have received advice that this is no longer the case. There is NO PROTECTION should a broker fail to segregate accounts. So there is no advantage opening an Aussie FX account.
The […]

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Yesterday I said that Money Management questions are dependent on:

The volatility of the market.
The trader’s Expectancy Return
The Ebb & Flow of the market relative to the trader’s trading plan.

Volatility of the market can be measured in any number of ways. For example:

Perry Kaufman’s Efficiency Ratio
Ray Barros’ Ray Clock
ATR
Barros Swing Extremes

The concepts of ATR and Barros […]

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I hope everyone had a great Easter break!
We went for a weekend trip to ATIC Kuala Lumpur - a trip that has great lessons for trading. The early signs were not propitious.
We arrived at the airport and there was no transport; we arrived at the hotel expecting a non-smoking room with a king size bed […]

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 A mixture of everything tonight.
Interactive Brokers: I want to stress that my complaint was more about:

The failure of IB to execute a stop order and
The attitude of IB’s customer service that all was well in their world.

The fact is, it is not - at least not from my experience. The failure to execute a stop is a […]

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I thought I’d share this experience with you - it may save you some money.
First off, let me say I did not suffer any dollar loss in this trade. In fact, I ended with a dollar a contract on a better fill. But, it could have cost me plenty. Here’s what happened.
At the moment, my […]

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Given yesterday’s performance, I thought a review of the S&P would be in order.
Figure 1 shows the 12-M Barros Swing.

Figure 1 12-M S&P
We have been in a sideways trend since the secular uptrend ended in March 2000. In October 2007, the failure of the new high to follow through, provided an Upthrust Change in Trend […]

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