Archive for July, 2008
Thursday, July 17th, 2008
Correlations
I am flying to Singapore today so I am posting Thursday’s blog early morning Hong Kong time.
Yesterday I received two e-mails asking: “since you believe that Crude Oil is going to go down, won’t this mean the S&P will go up?”
The questions imply that there is a negative correlation between Crude and the US Stock […]
2 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries, Written Plan by ray
Wednesday, July 16th, 2008
Soybeans July 16 2008
Before I get into today’s blog, a short detour to comment on Ana’s contribution:
The SEC has passed an emergency rule to limit short selling in certain types of institutions. Hmm, the thin edge of the wedge? Steve Briese recently placed a warning on his site that I posted on “S&P 06-30-2008“. Speculators are being blamed […]
2 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Tuesday, July 15th, 2008
Crude Oil - Wither now?
I wanted to review Crude Oil (this blog) and Soybeans (next one), the two hot commodities.
In the case of Crude Oil, let me say I am indebted to Gann Global (http://www.gannglobal.com/gateway.php) . I have a reasonable data base but it is nothing compared to Gann Global’s. I subscribe to their services because of the […]
3 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Monday, July 14th, 2008
IndyMac Update & Scenario Creation
I was going to write on the bull markets of Crude Oil, Soybeans and Gold today; but I have decided to follow-up on the IndyMac failure and use it as an example in scenario creation. The link below leads to the video with the example. Below that are a number of observations on the IndyMac […]
6 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Saturday, July 12th, 2008
IndyMac - Bank Failure Atlanta
I don’t normally post on weekends. But in this case the news warrants it.
At 6:00 PM Friday, the FDIC announced the closing of the US major bank, IndyMac and the transfer of its assets to a new bank. No one will lose money but the closure may affect two other lending institutions in Atlanta.
The news […]
2 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Friday, July 11th, 2008
Scenario Creation and Visualization
In yesterday’s blog on the S&P, I set out my conclusions but not my thought processes. In coming to the conclusions, I used a process involving:
Scenario Creation
Decision Tree Analysis and
Visualization.
The essential elements of Scenario Creation are similar to the processes used in Scenario Planning. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning, item 6 ‘Scenario Planning). Once I have identified the […]