You will have noticed that I did not write my blog for Thursday and Friday last week. Apart from my schedule, a turn of events in my personal life will mean that my first entry resuming the blog will be on Thursday Oct 30.
My apologies to all my readers.
Refer this blog post to a friend […]

continue reading.....

I am currently in Australia touring its various cities.
On Tuesday I was in Brisbane; yesterday I was in Melbourne (still am); and later today I’ll be in Sydney. Later today at 4:00 PM (Sydney time) I’ll be interviewed on CNBC ’s “Trading Matters with Oriel Morrisson” and on Friday and Saturday, I’ll be at the Sydney Trading […]

continue reading.....

There are two countries that over the years have had a balanced budget and whose economies have been earmarked by saving both at a state and personal level: Australia and Singapore. 
On that basis, I believed that these two would weather the coming storm the best.Imagine my surprise when I read the other day that Kevin […]

continue reading.....

Is the world heading for a deflation/depression? Have the probabilities increased or decreased? Tonight I’ll examine the benchmarks
In Words Are Capable of Precise Meanings, I mentioned the monthly closes that would increase the probabilities of a deflation/depression:

Gold a monthly close below $640.00
Crude a monthly close below $84.59

Both are basis the CSI Perpetual contract. Basis Dec, Crude’s benchmark […]

continue reading.....

I am having a busy time of late: On October 15, I had to give a 2-hour presentation (preview) in Hong Kong and on October 17, I was a guest of Share Investor at their Investor Expo in Kuala Lumpur.What I am about to say about the audiences is my initial response only ; I […]

continue reading.....

I was watching two interviews the other day - one of Tim Morge (http://www.medianline.com/) and one of Jim Rogers (http://www.jimrogers.com/). Both were making the same point: the actions of the FED and the US Government led us step by step to the abyss that faced us a few days ago. Each step was taken in the name […]

continue reading.....

As a discretionary trader, I rate some of my most important skills as:

 The ability of accepting incoming information that is contrary to my preferred scenario
 Assessing the probability of that alternative scenario occurring.

This ability has served me not only in trading but in life in general.  Let’s look at an example of what I mean.
My preferred […]

continue reading.....

Last night, the ES futures open-gapped about 5.27%. In his blog yesterday, Quantifiable Edges, Rob Hanna produced a table of occurrences where the S&P gapped more than 2%.
Based on that table, we can say there is a 75% probability the gap will close within 2 days i.e. by today and an 85% probability […]

continue reading.....

Regular readers of my blog will know that I have outmost respect for Sentiment Trader, Quantifiable Edges and Dr. Brett Steenbarger’s blog. I subscribe to both ST and QE’s newsletters and I read Brett’s Blog regularly. What they all have in common is they statistically validate trading ideas.
In Friday’s Blog, I raised the possibility […]

continue reading.....

That statement is an idea I read from one of Ayn Rand’s works. It may not be an exact quote but the sentiment is accurate. Another concept that has served me in good stead is: “(Whenever in doubt), check your premise”.
I have often found that when events are not unfolding as I imagined, the error […]

continue reading.....