Published in December 30th, 2008
The past 5 blogs looked at the fundamental and technical picture of the US Stock Market.
It’s important to remember that:
I use fundamentals not to time my trades but to provide a context. The reason for this is not hard to find. Fundamentals are not timing tools. For example, even if I were right […]
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Published in December 29th, 2008
The technical picture is quite clear; it offers two choices as shown by Figures 1 and 2.
FIGURE 1 1966 to 1982 Sideways Scenario
FIGURE 2 1931 to 2007
There is obviously quite a difference in the two scenarios. In the first, we can expect to see a test of the 2007 highs in both the S&P and […]
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Published in December 23rd, 2008
First off an announcement: I am taking a Xmas break: Dec 24 to Dec 28. The next entry will be Dec 29.
I was going to start on the technical picture but a couple of e-mail questions need to be addressed:
One asked why a little inflation was not a good thing?
Another asked if I thought a […]
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Published in December 22nd, 2008
First off - have a very Merry Xmas and a fabulous 2009!
Today I am continuing with the series and will be considering the cost of the bailouts. Before I do that let me give you my two main sources of data:
Shadow Stats
ECRI
Shadow Stats produces data that provide an accurate picture of the US economy and […]
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Published in December 19th, 2008
By all reports, there is a second-wave interest crunch to hit the US - perhaps as early as next year. If you Google ‘Alt-A’ (Alternative Paper A), Option Arms and Interest Only, you’ll find a ton of information. But before I get into tonight’s piece, let’s deal with what those acronyms mean:
1) Alt-A: A classification […]
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Published in December 18th, 2008
Today’s entry will be a short one. I’ll be merely raising the topic I’ll be covering over the next few days:
Do the probabilities favour a 1966 to 1982 type recession? Or will we be facing a deflation?
I’ll be considering this question firstly from a fundamental viewpoint, then a technical. I’ll then look at some options […]
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Published in December 17th, 2008
Yesterday, in Emotions: Their Role in the Decision-Making Process, I looked at some of the comments D’Amasio made in a recent interview. Today I’d like to look at some of the ramifications arising from the interview.
Firstly, the comments validate the findings in The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance.
The Handbook studies suggest that mastery […]
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Published in December 16th, 2008
In a special edition of Discover (November 2008) , I found an interview with Antonio D’Amasio that contained important insights for investors and traders
D’Amasio is the neurologist who established that robust decision-making is as much a function of our emotions as a function of our reasoning capacity. His thesis can be found in the quote […]
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Published in December 15th, 2008
As I read about Bernard Madoff’s problems, I reflected on my own response to the challenging economic conditions. In case you have not read about it, this link will fill you in Madoff’s woes.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28183375/
My main business is to run a private, closed, limited partnership fund with a 3-year lockout period. I vet my investors carefully:
I […]
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Published in December 12th, 2008
One of the things that I learned from Pete Steidlmayer was to take calculated risks. Not that I am risk averse - that too was something I had to learn: the times when risk taking is unjustified.
What I learnt from Pete was that to succeed I had to take calculated risks and not to just […]
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