Archive for December, 2008
Tuesday, December 30th, 2008
The Sub-Prime Second Wave? VI
The past 5 blogs looked at the fundamental and technical picture of the US Stock Market.
It’s important to remember that:
I use fundamentals not to time my trades but to provide a context. The reason for this is not hard to find. Fundamentals are not timing tools. For example, even if I were right […]
1 Comment » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Monday, December 29th, 2008
The Sub-Prime Second Wave? V
The technical picture is quite clear; it offers two choices as shown by Figures 1 and 2.
FIGURE 1 1966 to 1982 Sideways Scenario
FIGURE 2 1931 to 2007
There is obviously quite a difference in the two scenarios. In the first, we can expect to see a test of the 2007 highs in both the S&P and […]
3 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008
The Sub-Prime Second Wave? IV
First off an announcement: I am taking a Xmas break: Dec 24 to Dec 28. The next entry will be Dec 29.
I was going to start on the technical picture but a couple of e-mail questions need to be addressed:
One asked why a little inflation was not a good thing?
Another asked if I thought a […]
3 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Monday, December 22nd, 2008
The Sub-Prime Second Wave? III
First off - have a very Merry Xmas and a fabulous 2009!
Today I am continuing with the series and will be considering the cost of the bailouts. Before I do that let me give you my two main sources of data:
Shadow Stats
ECRI
Shadow Stats produces data that provide an accurate picture of the US economy and […]
2 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Friday, December 19th, 2008
The Sub-Prime Second Wave? II
By all reports, there is a second-wave interest crunch to hit the US - perhaps as early as next year. If you Google ‘Alt-A’ (Alternative Paper A), Option Arms and Interest Only, you’ll find a ton of information. But before I get into tonight’s piece, let’s deal with what those acronyms mean:
1) Alt-A: A classification […]
8 Comments » - Posted in Market Commentaries by ray
Thursday, December 18th, 2008
The Sub-Prime Second Wave?
Today’s entry will be a short one. I’ll be merely raising the topic I’ll be covering over the next few days:
Do the probabilities favour a 1966 to 1982 type recession? Or will we be facing a deflation?
I’ll be considering this question firstly from a fundamental viewpoint, then a technical. I’ll then look at some options […]