I have received quite a lot of mail on this and on the subject of trading losses. Today, I’ll deal with the S&P question.
The seasonals on the S&P have been uncannily accurate. Based on the charts produced by MRCI, I got the low I was looking for at the end of March. I expect the rally to end next week and fall into the second week of April. I’ll then reassess the situation
Figure 1 shows the MRCI chart.
Figure 1 MRCI Seasonal S&P
Price wise, the key levels on the 12-Month Swing (Yearly Trend) are:
- 894 and
- 943
Figure 2 shows the levels. The levels have been updated to accommodate the recent price action. A monthly bullish conviction bar close above 894 would suggest a repeat of the 1966 to 1982 sideways market and project a move to 1566 to 1461 (Primary Sell Zone 12-month Swing). A daily bullish conviction close above 943 would suggest the same thing.
Figure 2 12-M S&P
Figure 3 shows the Daily price action. The most likely target for this move is the 896 -897, a 50% retracement and 894, the top of the 12-M Primary Buy Zone. Other time tools suggest that Monday April 6 +/- one day will see the highs for this move.
We’ll see.
Figure 3 Daily S&P
Refer this blog post to a friend or colleague…
