BarroMetrics Views: Hello Bear Market

A bear market has begun in the S&P that in my view will take it to at least

Acceptance below the March low at 1249 suggests that 1371 will be the high for 2011. This paints a very bearish picture to 2015 to 2020. I’ll deal with the forecast in a later blog. For the moment let’s focus on the near term.

I have cycle lows due end Aug/early Sept. Figure 1 shows the projected zones for that low. The ideal low would be the Primary Buy Zone, 1056 to 1010 and the preferred target withing that zone, 1053 to 1037. Cycle highs are due late Sept/Early Oct. I’ll look at the possible  zone closer to the event.

By the way, the price action of Aug 7 looked climatic for this leg down. I am looking for a small rally followed by a sell off into the cycle low.

Bud Kress (of Kress Cycles; patlurker@aol.com) has suggested that the next high (Sept/Oct) will be the final high before all his cycles turn down. If Bud is correct, then we should see an acceleration to the downside in the last quarter. This does suggest no Xmas rally or if there is one, it will be severely muted.

FIGURE S&P Targ

ets for Wave 1

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