I have been asked to contribute a post today and with all the headlines on Swine Flu, I feel it is time for us to be alert, but not to panic.
What are the implications for markets?
World stocks tumbled today , after seven weeks of gains, and oil and the euro fell as concerns intensified the spread of swine flu, which has killed more than 100 people in Mexico, would hit the global economy.
Travel and leisure-related stocks tumbled while the Mexican peso fell 2 percent against the dollar as the World Health Organization warned the flu, which has spread to the United States and possibly as far as New Zealand, has the potential to cause a worldwide pandemic.
The threat of the pandemic will add further weakness to global trade.
“If the disease proves to be more fatal, the dollar would rally and cross-yen would come under pressure,” BNP Paribas said in a note to clients.
Given the recent ‘green shoots’, the market would take any worsening of the outbreak as an obstruction to the global recovery process.
Gold steadied in Europe on Monday after rising to a four-week high earlier in the session as equities fell on concerns over the prospect of a global flu pandemic, which boosted interest in bullion as a haven.
The precious metal is also underpinned by technical factors after breaking above $900 an ounce late last week and it has been boosted by news China has significantly increased its gold reserves, analysts said.
However, gains in the dollar versus the euro are limiting gold’s climb.
Equities in pharmaceuticals would benefit.
Futures in Pork and Corn and Soybean meals will drop. However eating pork that is properly cooked should not pass the swine flu, according to medical sources.
On the health side, we must stay alert without panic.
Swine flu or influenza is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza that causes outbreaks of influenza among pigs. Swine flu viruses do not normally infect humans; however, human infections with swine flu do occur, with human-to-human spread of swine flu viruses being documented.
CDC –Centres for Disease Control and Prevention:
Laboratory testing has found the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir and has issued interim guidance for the use of these drugs to treat and prevent infection with swine influenza viruses. CDC also has prepared interim guidance on how to care for people who are sick and interim guidance on the use of face masks in a community setting where spread of this swine flu virus has been detected. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide new information as it becomes available.
There are everyday actions people can take to stay healthy.
- Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
- Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.
The symptoms of swine flu in people are similar to the symptoms of regular human flu and include fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue. Some people have reported diarrhea and vomiting associated with swine flu. In the past, severe illness (pneumonia and respiratory failure) and deaths have been reported with swine flu infection in people. Like seasonal flu, swine flu may cause a worsening of underlying chronic medical conditions.
So far, 20 cases of the new swine influenza strain in humans have been confirmed in five states, but all have been mild cases, similar to the seasonal flu, which continues on the decline in Massachusetts.
New Zealand’s health minister, Tony Ryall, said today that 10 students who just returned from Mexico have tested positive for influenza. He said the cases are “likely” to be swine flu.
The new strain poses the threat of a possible pandemic because it has jumped from pigs, where it is common, to humans and there is no background immunity nor effective vaccines. We do have to take this seriously, although we are probably better prepared than we were in 1918, the last flu pandemic.
The World Health Organization has us at alert level three, because we have a specific flu strain, H1N1, that we are looking at and there has been some person-to-person transmission. If cases increase, the alert would rise to level four, and level six would be a global pandemic.
The link to the federal Centers for Disease Control web site information is: www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm
ANA aka IDkit
Ag Moderator
PS
CNBC -Swine Flu & Markets
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1104651935&play=1?__source=CNBC|newsnow|vid2|2009|
http://awanginvest.com/?p=1221
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