Here are the expectations for tonight 8:30 am EST:
—————————————- Consensus Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls 0 -40,000 to 75,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 10.1 % 9.9 % to 10.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.2
My view we will see worse than expected numbers but within range: around the -25000 to - 30000 zone. If we do see these numbers, we can expect more early downside for the reasons in stated in today’s Forum-Twitter, I do expect to see a higher close. Even if the higher close does not occur, I expect to see a rotational day with around a 12-point range.
- Numbers below -40000 will probably result in another trend day down.
- Numbers above 75000 should see a strong day up
Most experienced technicians from Quant to Discretionary are looking for some sort of bounce. This includes my favourite quant service: Quantifiable Edges. But this statement by QE is why I like the service so much - you won’t find many quants saying it:
“The second thing to keep in mind is that this market is now again acting in a historically abnormal way….When the market does not conform to historical norms then it’s reasonable to take extra precautions.”
The reason I like it is because it reflects the idea that successful traders keep their mind open to all the information is providing even info that does not support their conclusion.
Refer this blog post to a friend or colleague…
