BarroMerics Views: Default Future and Success
There are about 3000 to 4000 readers of this blog. If the stats are accurate, then 90% of active traders are losing money. The most recent of the studies I know of is:
- One by FXCM, Why Do Many Traders Lose Money, and
- A confidential report by a leading US broker of its futures clients’ trading results.
The studies show that the largest group in the unsuccessful camp can be categorised into two group extremes (Figure 1) Within the two extremes, fall many nuances of the extremes:
- Those who attend all possible educational events, and
- Those who won’t spend a nano-dime, and nano-second, to learn how to trade.
- Between these two extremes will fall many to the left of group 1 and to the right of group 2 (Figure 1).
Let’s look at the second exreme first.
Think about this:
Trading is as much as a profession and craft as law, medicine, carpentry, plumbery etc. Yet, no aspiring professional or craftsman would dare to dream of attaining success without contemplating first acquiring an education.
So, what chance(to be profitable) would those leaning towards the second extreme have? As my Australian mates used to say, ‘Buckleys’.
We can’t accuse those in, as well as those leaning towards the first group, of not wanting an education. Indeed, they chase it with a vengeance - free talks, paid seminars, week long workshops - you name it, they attend it.
BUT, they share one characteristic with the second group - a characteristic that ensures their failure: despite all their education, they exhibit no behavioural change.
Here’s the thing, no matter how good the educator, how excellent the content, those falling into this main failure group will not be helped until they become aware that it is they that hold the keys to their success - to succeed they need to become aware of their default future.
It’s worth repeating that I am speaking about the main group, the one the two studies showed most of the failing traders belonged to. Within this group, there were two extreme categories - ‘indiscriminate seminar attendees’ and ‘educational no-nos’, with many leaning towards one or the other extreme.