BarroMetrics Views: Sensex Update March 8
I have been receiving some requests for an update on the Indian Stock Market. Now this is not a market I trade so be warned that I may be even more wrong than normal (G).
Figure 1 is the 12-month Barros Swing Chart. I see the Sensex as potentially forming a sideways market between 20312.5 and 17187.5. If I am right about this, then we should see the Sensex head back to the Primary Sell Zone 20312.5 to 19920. Acceptance below 16796 would negate this scenario and would suggest a move to 14455 to 14060.
Let’s turn to the lower timeframes to see if they can confirm or reject the working scenario of a ’sideway market forming 20132.5 to 17184.5.
Figure 2 is the 18-day Barros Swings. Notice:
- Square 2 (currently rally) has greater volume and range per bar than Square 1.
- Normally, I would expect a retest of the breakdown point, 18954. But because the volume per bar is greater in Sq 2 than Sq 1, I expect the current retracement to accept above 19278.
- If that happens we can expect to see 20312.5 to 19924.7.
In the next 5 to 10 days, I would expect to see a retest of the zone 17874 to 17210. If we see the retest on per bar declining volume and range, then I’d be a buyer provided I see a setup and trigger. Initial stops would be below 15587 if money management allows; alternatively, I’d place stops below 17210.
FIGURE 1 12-Month Swing
FIGURE 2 18-day Swing
FIGURE 3 18-day Swing
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