Mon 11 Aug 2008
S&P 08-11-2008
Posted by ray under Market Commentaries
I know I am supposed to comment on the S&P, Strait Times, All Ords and Sensex. But over the weekend, I received a number of requests to do an analysis clearly identifying Nature of Trends Material (NOT), Market Profile and Ray Wave.
I am happy to oblige. The link for the video is: http://www.tradingsuccess.com/download/811-blog/811-blog.html
There are a few points I want to make.
- There are no Ray Wave Counts. The RW is best used in directional markets; the Market Profile in rotational. The RW material lies in the ratios used to identify the possible resistance zone.
- My starting point is the theme that the massive increase in M3 will force the FED to raise rates, probably after the elections. This is a continuation of the theme that enabled me to identify the coming of the sub-prime crisis long before the crisis hit.
- I say in the video that the 12-m Upthrust was confirmed (by the June bar)…..This was a poor choice of words. The Upthrust will not be confirmed until we see lower lows and lower highs after acceptance below the October low at 768. What I should have said was: “The June bar increased the probability of a valid Upthrust Change In Trend pattern”.
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August 11th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Hi Ray, This does help me bring to book to life. I was wondering with regards to the statistcal time price window,if you had considered making a distintion to the impulse means ie up,down and congestion. The saying “up the stairs,down the elevator ” comes to mind.I know the book says no distinction of impulses but might a large sample base in those 3 areas add to,definitions like normal strong etc by way of comparison.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Hi Baz
There are no impulse moves within a congestion pattern. I treat them as corrective moves.
In NOT jargon XA is the impulse move; BC form the minimum sideways swings (corrective) and thereafter all swings are corrective until there is breakout - at least on our testing.
In downlegs for financials, FX and gold, over a large sample size, the TA truism that down moves are faster and deeper were proven false.
HOWEVER the down moves in the grain markets that I now look at, - Soybeans and Wheat- this is true once highs are made. If you look at a Soybean chart you’ll see many instances of V-type tops.
August 11th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Yes i used the wrong word with regard to congestion but its good to expose the myth which i had believed for over 20 years.With the grains i believe this to be a seasonal affect. cheers baz