BarroMetrics Views: S&P and Seasonality II

More quant studies This time by Jason Goepfert who writes a daily newsletter (see  http://www.sentimentrader.com/)

“2011 can now officially claim the worst pre-Thanksgiving week ever.  Two other years, 1973 and 2000, had losses exceeding -3% and 6 years had losses greater than -2%.

Of those 6, the half-day after the holiday was positive 5 times, averaging +1.1% (the loss was -0.3%).

There were 11 times Thanksgiving week had a loss exceeding -1%.  Of those, 10 sported a positive return the day after the holiday, with the same average return.”

Like Rob Hanna’s stats (see http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/), the studies show we ought to see an up day in Friday’s  trading. And, as I said yesterday, given that seasonality favours an up day for Friday, Nov 25, if we see a down day instead, this will be a strong indication that a new down leg has begun that will test the 1070 to 1100 levels.

Refer this blog post to a friend or colleague…