BarroMetrics Views: S&P Nearing A Top? Revisted
The tools compromising my approach to the markets are saying a S&P top is at hand:
- Price - Structure: The 12-Month Swing and 13-week swing show we are in a sell zone. Figure 3 shows that since the Dec 2, 2011 that the up move has been on declining volume and range. In this context this is bearish.
- Time: Kress Cycles suggest we are in a window when a top is likely.
- Momentum: Figure 4 shows that this up move has been on declining momentum.
- Sentiment: The sentiment indicators I use suggest the S&P is skewed to the upside.
- Normalised Volume: We saw a sell setup with ‘below normal range’ and ‘normal volume’.
- PoMo: For me, this indicator generated a sell signal today.
All that is needed is a strong directional down bar to generate a sell signal. Perhaps Greece will be the catalyst, perhaps something else. As a technician, what I now want to see to confirm my bearish scenario is bearish price action. Until then, all I have are amber lights for my long positions. On these I have tightened my trailing stops and lowered my exit targets.
FIGURE 1 12-M Swing
FIGURE 2 13-W Swing
Figure 3 S&P Weekly Volume and Range
Figure 4 S&P Weekly Momentum
Figure 5 Normalised Volume Weekly
Figure 6 Normalised Volume Daily
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