BarroMetrics Views: The St Louis Fed Reserve

RoboYak asked:

“So from this graph how can you tell when banks start lending to main street, will the value start trending lower, say below 2,000? ”

Figure 1 shows the deposits in the St Louis since 1910. We see an exponential rise from 800 at the start of the sub-prime crisis.

Figure 2 shows that the ascent is stalling. My benchmarks:

  1. A break below 2000 would be warning that lending has resumed.
  2.  A break below 1600 would be reflected in the CPI
  3. A break to 800 would mean banks are lending freely.


My blogs will be affected over the next few days as I prepare for the event in Singapore. It looks as though it will be a fine affair though somewhat crowded. We have space for 600 and have received over 1000 applications!


FIGURE 1 St Louis Fed Reserves from 1910


FIGURE 2 St Louis Fed Reserves from 1985