BarroMetrics Views: US$ - Bear Market Rally or Start of New Up Trend? (II)

Back to the GBPUSD and a look at the 18-day trend (monthly trend).

FIGURE 1 shows the equivalent of the 13-week swing (black), 18-day swing (red) and 5-day (blue).

The 18-day is in a sideways trend (ABC). The BPUS is in the process of accepting below the Value Area Low, 1.6145. If that occurs, we can expect the market to move to the Primary Buy Zone and a possible attempt below 1.5428. In doing this, the GBPUSD will trigger a 13-week line turn (Line Turn price 1.5603). This suggests we will see a 13-week Whole Point Count  and more downside.

(Whole Point Count = 1/2 the swing period at or beyond the start of congestion. In this case, 7 consecutive weekly highs at to below 1.5697).

What about a GBPUSD bull scenario?

If we see re-acceptance above 1.6145, we can expect a move to the Value Area High 1.6595. That said, my leanings are towards acceptance below 1.6145.

FIGURE 1 GBPUSD

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